Rates may be ticking up, but trucking jobs are still disappearing. With the feds taking out bad actors in the industry and diesel prices skyrocketing, will trucking capacity get even tighter?

In March, there were 800 fewer trucking jobs, according to the latest data from the federal government. That continues a slow-but-steady tightening of capacity that began three years ago.

Since February 2023, there have been fewer trucking jobs every month except for three. Trucking employment peaked in October 2022 after a surge of motor carriers entered the market in the wake of the pandemic. Quarantine orders caused unusually high consumer demand for products, sending spot rates rapidly upward.

After consumer spending returned to pre-pandemic levels, there has been a capacity glut that the industry has been trying to purge. Yellow Corp. gave that effort a boost after its bankruptcy led to the loss of tens of thousands of trucking jobs in August 2023.

A constant stream of drivers leaving the industry has led to nearly 115,000 fewer trucking jobs since the purge began in 2023. Seasonally adjusted, trucking employment is at its lowest level since September 2020.

While new federal policies are expected to push more truck drivers out, the six-figure loss since 2023 occurred before the U.S. Department of Transportation vowed to clean up trucking.

In 2024, nearly 41,000 truckers exited the market. Last year, nearly 28,000 drivers were eliminated.

Last September, the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration issued an emergency interim final rule setting tougher restrictions on non-domiciled CDLS. FMCSA estimates nearly 200,000 would be forced to “exit the freight market” as a result.

Since then, government data reveals that about 8,000 trucking jobs have been eliminated. However, legal challenges delayed the implementation of the new rule. After completing the regular rulemaking process, the final rule took effect on March 16.

If anyone is expecting a mass exodus now that the non-domiciled CDL rule is in effect, think again.

Non-domiciled CDLs issued before March 16 that do not meet the new requirements will not be revoked until renewal. While some have speculated this could take five years to realize, FMCSA Administrator Derek Barrs told Land Line that is not true.

“I don’t know where this ‘five years’ thing comes in, but it is over a period of time,” Barrs said. “When a driver’s license is issued, it could have been issued up to five years. That would be probably the maximum at that particular time, but that should have been issued to them legally in their legal status at that time. We have asked the states that we’ve done investigations on that you must downgrade those CDLs if they were not issued properly.”

Some states are taking matters into their own hands. A new Indiana law that went into effect in March eliminated nearly every non-domiciled CDL in the state on April 1.

In the meantime, market forces have been doing a good job at keeping capacity at bay. The Middle East conflict sent diesel prices soaring, eating away at any profits gleaned from higher rates.

David Spencer, vice president of market intelligence at Arrive Logistics, said regulations and fuel prices are putting downward pressure on trucking jobs. However, several years of a freight recession are still weighing heavily on the carriers that managed to stay afloat.

“Increased spot rates are helping, but after several years of little to no rate increases, adding or maintaining headcount remains difficult for many carriers,” Spencer said. “The lack of confidence in demand stability amid rising inflation concerns is also likely driving the sector’s lagging hiring trends.”

At the ground level, truck drivers are starting to see the benefits of tightening capacity while simultaneously taking the hits from higher diesel prices.

Jamie Hagen, owner of Hell Bent Xpress, told Land Line that 2026 “has been pretty good so far.” He credits the federal crackdown on bad actors in the trucking industry for bringing up rates. Hagen has found that he has much more leverage in negotiating better rates now that his customers cannot rely on hiring cheaper freight.

“This administration definitely seems interested in actually enforcing the rules,” Hagen said. “I feel like there’s going to be some momentum here, you know what I mean, with them taking out nefarious individuals out of the marketplace. I feel like there’s going to be a little bit of a capacity leaving the market.” LL