Cross-border trucking had a slow start to the year, driven primarily by the biggest drop in Canadian freight since the pandemic.

Trucking freight crossing the borders saw some wild swings last year. The theme of the year was “uncertainty,” which was caused by tariff whiplash. By the end of the year, freight markets finally began to stabilize. Last year ended with three straight months of year-over-year increases in cross-border trucking.

That streak was disrupted in January when trucking freight crossing the borders dropped by 3.5% compared to last January. The reason for the decrease followed another theme from last year: a slump in Canadian cross-border trucking freight.

Trucking freight coming in and out of Canada dropped by 17% in January, overriding the 5.8% gain from the southern border. In 2025, seven months experienced year-over-year gains in cross-border trucking. That is despite nine months of declines in Canadian freight, many of which hit double digits. January’s steep drop was the largest monthly decline since May 2020, when the pandemic massively disrupted the supply chain.

Mexican cross-border trucking freight has outpaced all other North American freight. For the most part, Mexican and Canadian freight closely tracked. That began to split in the second quarter of 2024. Perhaps not coincidentally, that is when computer-related trucking freight out of Mexico began to surge, propping up Mexico’s net cross-border trucking freight.

Cross-border trucking freight may see some more swings this year.

In February, the Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s global reciprocal tariffs and those imposed on Canada, China and Mexico to fight the flow of illegal drugs. Rather than create more certainty, the ruling may have reset the situation to the state of the freight market at the same time last year, when Trump first announced the tariffs.

Immediately after the Supreme Court ruling, Trump announced a fresh set of global tariffs using a different, more legally sound method. Although those tariffs are capped at 150 days, Trump is exploring other avenues in the meantime.

While there are some indications of a new upcycle, the OOIDA Foundation warned in its March freight market outlook that those signs may be misleading. Spot rates have been going up. However, that is likely due to fewer drivers on the road rather than stronger demand. Assuming that’s true, the current uptick in rates may not be sustainable.

“For now, the market remains in a holding pattern until a more durable, demand-led recovery takes hold,” the Foundation states in the report.

Throwing another wrench in the gears is the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which is up for review in July. Enacted during Trump’s first term, the free trade agreement has a renewable 16-year term. If all three countries sign off, the 16-year sunset clock restarts. If one country is not satisfied, an annual review cycle is triggered. That will keep the agreement intact as is until a deal is met, it expires in 2036, or a country withdraws. LL